Gorbachev warns the world against new split

The first and last president of the former USSR, Nobel Peace Prize winner Mikhail Gorbachev, told Itar-Tass that in the wake of Russia’s recognition of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states he cannot but share some ideas of the situation that has taken shape literally over the past few days and hours, and to warn the world community against a new split.
Below is the text of an article Gorbachev shared with Itar-Tass earlier on Tuesday.
“The latest events in the Caucasus have set in motion political and military mechanisms in the United States, Europe and Russia. As a matter of fact, the situation there is a world concern. There has emerged the risk of global turmoil, something I have warned of many a time over the past few years.
“In connection with the latest developments I would like to recall one episode of the world’s recent history I was myself strongly impressed with.
“In September 1962 one of the best-selling hits in America’s bookstores was Barbara Tuchman’s The Guns of August, a study devoted entirely to the beginning of World War I. And in October 1962 there would erupt the Cuban missile crisis that placed the world on the brink of World War III. That the worst did not happen, though, probably was due to that book US President John F. Kennedy was reading when the missile crisis was at its climax. JFK was deeply impressed by the description of how not very hostile countries could slide towards war with each other, and the world crisis, grow far and wide in a snowball fashion. Mutually provoked escalations of tensions, misjudgments in evaluating each other’s true intentions, the reluctance to lose face, and jingoism eventually plunged Europe into war.
“Ole Rudolf Holsti, an American political scientist, academic and expert on crisis diplomacy affairs, recalls that in the autumn of 1962 the president was reading Barbara Tuchman’s book The Guns of August – a narration of events of the first month of World War I. As the US scholar recalls it, Kennedy was particularly impressed by how miscalculations and distorted perception of the reality influenced the march of events in 1914. Kennedy said the book had made him realize how fast relatively disinterested states could go to war with each other. Their leaders kept saying that military muscle just makes peace stronger. But it failed.
“In 1962 Kennedy derived the proper conclusion from Tuchman’s book. He put through a telephone call to Krushchev. The world breathed a sigh of relief.
“True, drawing any exact parallels with the past would be not appropriate, but it is a vital need to warn of the disastrous effects any impulsive, ill-considered step may trigger.
“It would be very wrong to permit an escalation of tensions, or to agree with those who dismiss political and diplomatic methods of defusing crises. Under no circumstance should policy-making and diplomacy be allowed to fall victim to the warmongers, who fan the flame of conflicts. Time is ripe to stop scaring each other and to do something constructive. After all, an absolute majority of people are peace-minded, and it is the politicians’ duty to turn an attentive ear to their opinion.”
 

ITAR-TASS
August 26,2008